While Qarabag are capable of defeating the majority of opposition on home territory, they may struggle to contain a free-flowing Leverkusen. We feel that the visitors will make a fast start to this contest and ultimately cruise to victory and qualification in the process.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayer Leverkusen win with a probability of 51.82%. A win for Qarabag FK had a probability of 25.77% and a draw had a probability of 22.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bayer Leverkusen win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.96%) and 0-2 (7.53%). The likeliest Qarabag FK win was 2-1 (6.48%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.15%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bayer Leverkusen would win this match.
-0.5) 
0.78) 
