Sturm have got into the habit of winning, while their draw with Salzburg will have felt like a win given the level of opposition.
However, Ilzer's side may be overpowered by the quality in the Sporting side, with the visitors arriving in excellent form.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 50.76%. A win for Sturm Graz had a probability of 25.02% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.62%) and 0-2 (8.72%). The likeliest Sturm Graz win was 1-0 (6.84%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.47%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.
-0.09) 
0.1) 
