Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hamburger SV win with a probability of 64.59%. A draw had a probability of 19.8% and a win for St Pauli had a probability of 15.58%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hamburger SV win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.98%) and 2-1 (9.9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.34%), while for a St Pauli win it was 0-1 (4.4%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood.