Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hamburger SV win with a probability of 40.97%. A win for Heidenheim had a probability of 35.24% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hamburger SV win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.28%) and 0-2 (5.88%). The likeliest Heidenheim win was 2-1 (8.02%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.8%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood.