Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Pauli win with a probability of 52.42%. A win for Hertha Berlin had a probability of 25% and a draw had a probability of 22.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a St Pauli win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.43%) and 0-2 (7.89%). The likeliest Hertha Berlin win was 2-1 (6.36%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.35%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-2 win for St Pauli in this match.
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