Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Pauli win with a probability of 57.13%. A draw had a probability of 21.9% and a win for SC Paderborn had a probability of 20.92%.
The most likely scoreline for a St Pauli win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.44%) and 2-0 (9.13%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.24%), while for a SC Paderborn win it was 1-2 (5.56%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for St Pauli in this match.
0.07) 
-0.11) 
