Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Pauli win with a probability of 45.91%. A win for SC Paderborn had a probability of 29.83% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a St Pauli win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.89%) and 2-0 (7.28%). The likeliest SC Paderborn win was 1-2 (7.23%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.34%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood.
0.67) 
-0.72) 
