Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Pauli win with a probability of 46.36%. A win for Schalke 04 had a probability of 30.32% and a draw had a probability of 23.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a St Pauli win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.69%) and 0-2 (6.72%). The likeliest Schalke 04 win was 2-1 (7.27%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.57%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood.
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