Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Pauli win with a probability of 45.99%. A win for SC Paderborn had a probability of 31.17% and a draw had a probability of 22.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a St Pauli win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.96%) and 0-2 (6.28%). The likeliest SC Paderborn win was 2-1 (7.33%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.1%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood.
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