Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Oulu win with a probability of 40.78%. A win for IFK Mariehamn had a probability of 32.78% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Oulu win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.62%) and 2-0 (7.18%). The likeliest IFK Mariehamn win was 0-1 (9.16%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.57%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Oulu in this match.