Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 65.95%. A draw had a probability of 17.9% and a win for Newcastle Jets had a probability of 16.14%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.26%) and 3-1 (7.7%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.73%), while for a Newcastle Jets win it was 1-2 (4.42%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Melbourne City would win this match.
