Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Port win with a probability of 37.75%. A win for Guangzhou had a probability of 37.53% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Port win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.92%) and 0-2 (5.78%). The likeliest Guangzhou win was 2-1 (8.38%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.52%). The actual scoreline of 1-5 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Port would win this match.