SM
| Current Group C Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Nigeria | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| 2 | Libya | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 3 | Rwanda | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | Equatorial Guinea | 3 | -6 | 0 |
| Current Group A Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Equatorial Guinea | 3 | 6 | 7 |
| 2 | Nigeria | 3 | 2 | 7 |
| 3 | Ivory Coast | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 4 | Guinea-Bissau | 3 | -5 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nigeria win with a probability of 37.1%. A draw had a probability of 32% and a win for Rwanda had a probability of 30.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nigeria win was 0-1 with a probability of 15.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.59%) and 1-2 (6.69%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (15.32%), while for a Rwanda win it was 1-0 (13.48%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 15.3% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Rwanda | Draw | Nigeria |
30.9% ( -0.1) | 32% ( -0.05) | 37.1% ( 0.14) |
| Both teams to score 36.91% ( 0.08) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 28.98% ( 0.1) | 71.02% ( -0.11) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 12.12% ( 0.06) | 87.88% ( -0.07) |
| Rwanda Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 58.53% ( -0.02) | 41.46% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 22.03% ( -0.02) | 77.97% ( 0.01) |
| Nigeria Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.05% ( 0.16) | 36.95% ( -0.16) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 26.26% ( 0.15) | 73.73% ( -0.16) |
| Score Analysis |
| Rwanda | Draw | Nigeria |
| 1-0 @ 13.48% ( -0.06) 2-0 @ 5.94% ( -0.03)2-1 @ 5.91% ( -0)3-0 @ 1.74% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 1.73% ( -0)Other @ 2.09% Total : 30.9% | 0-0 @ 15.32% ( -0.06) 1-1 @ 13.42% 2-2 @ 2.94% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.3% Total : 31.99% | 0-1 @ 15.25% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 7.59% ( 0.04)1-2 @ 6.69% ( 0.03)0-3 @ 2.52% ( 0.02)1-3 @ 2.22% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 0.98% ( 0.01)Other @ 1.85% Total : 37.1% |
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