SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rwanda win with a probability of 36.43%. A win for Lesotho had a probability of 32.66% and a draw had a probability of 30.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rwanda win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.26%) and 1-2 (6.97%). The likeliest Lesotho win was 1-0 (13.09%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 0-0 (13.64%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 14.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Rwanda in this match.
| Result | ||
| Lesotho | Draw | Rwanda |
32.66% ( -0.16) | 30.9% ( -0.11) | 36.43% ( 0.27) |
| Both teams to score 39.72% ( 0.25) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 32.11% ( 0.3) | 67.89% ( -0.3) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 14.14% ( 0.2) | 85.86% ( -0.2) |
| Lesotho Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 61.71% ( 0.05) | 38.29% ( -0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 24.95% ( 0.05) | 75.05% ( -0.05) |
| Rwanda Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.36% ( 0.34) | 35.63% ( -0.35) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 27.59% ( 0.35) | 72.4% ( -0.36) |
| Score Analysis |
| Lesotho | Draw | Rwanda |
| 1-0 @ 13.09% ( -0.13) 2-1 @ 6.49% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 6.29% ( -0.05)3-1 @ 2.08% ( 0)3-0 @ 2.01% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 1.07% ( 0.01)Other @ 1.63% Total : 32.66% | 0-0 @ 13.64% ( -0.15) 1-1 @ 13.51% 2-2 @ 3.35% ( 0.04)Other @ 0.39% Total : 30.89% | 0-1 @ 14.07% ( -0.03) 0-2 @ 7.26% ( 0.06)1-2 @ 6.97% ( 0.06)0-3 @ 2.5% ( 0.04)1-3 @ 2.4% ( 0.04)2-3 @ 1.15% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.07% Total : 36.42% |
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