SM
| Current Group E Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Mali | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| 2 | South Africa | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| 3 | Namibia | 3 | -3 | 4 |
| 4 | Tunisia | 3 | -1 | 2 |
| Current Group A Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Equatorial Guinea | 3 | 6 | 7 |
| 2 | Nigeria | 3 | 2 | 7 |
| 3 | Ivory Coast | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 4 | Guinea-Bissau | 3 | -5 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mali win with a probability of 50.08%. A draw had a probability of 25.9% and a win for Nigeria had a probability of 23.97%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mali win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.66%) and 2-1 (9.26%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.25%), while for a Nigeria win it was 0-1 (8.12%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 3.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Nigeria would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Mali | Draw | Nigeria |
50.08% ( 0.06) | 25.95% ( -0.18) | 23.97% ( 0.12) |
| Both teams to score 48.04% ( 0.63) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 44.82% ( 0.76) | 55.18% ( -0.76) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.58% ( 0.62) | 76.42% ( -0.62) |
| Mali Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.92% ( 0.35) | 22.08% ( -0.35) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 44.56% ( 0.52) | 55.43% ( -0.52) |
| Nigeria Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 61.65% ( 0.54) | 38.35% ( -0.54) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 24.89% ( 0.51) | 75.1% ( -0.51) |
| Score Analysis |
| Mali | Draw | Nigeria |
| 1-0 @ 12.79% ( -0.24) 2-0 @ 9.66% ( -0.09)2-1 @ 9.26% ( 0.05)3-0 @ 4.86% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 4.66% ( 0.07)3-2 @ 2.23% ( 0.07)4-0 @ 1.84% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 1.76% ( 0.05)Other @ 3.01% Total : 50.08% | 1-1 @ 12.25% ( -0.06) 0-0 @ 8.47% ( -0.25)2-2 @ 4.44% ( 0.09)Other @ 0.78% Total : 25.94% | 0-1 @ 8.12% ( -0.12) 1-2 @ 5.88% ( 0.06)0-2 @ 3.89% ( -0)1-3 @ 1.88% ( 0.05)2-3 @ 1.42% ( 0.05)0-3 @ 1.24% ( 0.02)Other @ 1.56% Total : 23.98% |
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