Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Congo win with a probability of 36.78%. A draw had a probability of 32.4% and a win for Sierra Leone had a probability of 30.82%.
The most likely scoreline for a Congo win was 0-1 with a probability of 15.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.55%) and 1-2 (6.52%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (15.91%), while for a Sierra Leone win it was 1-0 (13.75%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Congo would win this match.
