SM
| Current Group D Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Nigeria | 3 | 5 | 9 |
| 2 | Egypt | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 3 | Sudan | 3 | -3 | 1 |
| 4 | Guinea-Bissau | 3 | -3 | 1 |
| Current Group E Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Ivory Coast | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| 2 | Equatorial Guinea | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 3 | Sierra Leone | 3 | -1 | 2 |
| 4 | Algeria | 3 | -3 | 1 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nigeria win with a probability of 40.73%. A win for Sierra Leone had a probability of 30.49% and a draw had a probability of 28.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nigeria win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.04%) and 2-0 (7.98%). The likeliest Sierra Leone win was 0-1 (10.94%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.26%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Nigeria would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Nigeria | Draw | Sierra Leone |
40.73% ( -0.96) | 28.77% ( 0.17) | 30.49% ( 0.79) |
| Both teams to score 44.61% ( -0.14) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 38.27% ( -0.32) | 61.72% ( 0.32) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 18.46% ( -0.24) | 81.53% ( 0.24) |
| Nigeria Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.25% ( -0.71) | 29.74% ( 0.7) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.19% ( -0.86) | 65.81% ( 0.86) |
| Sierra Leone Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.5% ( 0.43) | 36.5% ( -0.44) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 26.71% ( 0.43) | 73.28% ( -0.44) |
| Score Analysis |
| Nigeria | Draw | Sierra Leone |
| 1-0 @ 13.16% ( -0.1) 2-1 @ 8.04% ( -0.12)2-0 @ 7.98% ( -0.22)3-1 @ 3.25% ( -0.12)3-0 @ 3.23% ( -0.15)3-2 @ 1.64% ( -0.04)4-1 @ 0.99% ( -0.05)4-0 @ 0.98% ( -0.07)Other @ 1.46% Total : 40.73% | 1-1 @ 13.26% ( 0.05) 0-0 @ 10.85% ( 0.13)2-2 @ 4.05% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.59% Total : 28.76% | 0-1 @ 10.94% ( 0.26) 1-2 @ 6.69% ( 0.11)0-2 @ 5.51% ( 0.19)1-3 @ 2.25% ( 0.06)0-3 @ 1.85% ( 0.09)2-3 @ 1.36% ( 0.01)Other @ 1.89% Total : 30.49% |
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