With a place in the round of 16 on the line, we expect both sides to take the game to each other in search of all three points. They head into this game in similar form, but we are tipping Sierra Leone to steal a narrow win in this one.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sierra Leone win with a probability of 38.76%. A win for Equatorial Guinea had a probability of 34.55% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sierra Leone win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.36%) and 2-0 (6.81%). The likeliest Equatorial Guinea win was 0-1 (9.64%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.69%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood.
