Sierra Leone
0 - 1
Eq Guinea

Kamara (23'), Wright (71'), Caulker (71'), Quee (77'), Buya Turay (90+5')
Quee (90')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Ganet (38')
Akapo (61'), Pepin (64'), Miranda (76')

Preview

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Africa Cup of Nations clash between Sierra Leone and Equatorial Guinea, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

We said: Sierra Leone 2-1 Equatorial Guinea

With a place in the round of 16 on the line, we expect both sides to take the game to each other in search of all three points. They head into this game in similar form, but we are tipping Sierra Leone to steal a narrow win in this one. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sierra Leone win with a probability of 38.76%. A win for Equatorial Guinea had a probability of 34.55% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Sierra Leone win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.36%) and 2-0 (6.81%). The likeliest Equatorial Guinea win was 0-1 (9.64%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.69%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood.

Result
Sierra Leone	Draw	Equatorial Guinea
38.76%	26.69%	34.55%

Both teams to score 51.75%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

46.75%

53.25%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

25.19%

74.8%

Sierra Leone Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.2%

26.8%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

37.91%

62.09%

Equatorial Guinea Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

70.7%

29.29%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

34.73%

65.26%

Score Analysis

Sierra Leone 38.75%

Equatorial Guinea 34.55%

Draw 26.69%

Sierra Leone	Draw	Equatorial Guinea
1-0 @ 10.33% 2-1 @ 8.36% 2-0 @ 6.81% 3-1 @ 3.67% 3-0 @ 2.99% 3-2 @ 2.25% 4-1 @ 1.21% 4-0 @ 0.98% Other @ 2.16% Total : 38.75%	1-1 @ 12.69% 0-0 @ 7.85% 2-2 @ 5.13% 3-3 @ 0.92% Other @ 0.1% Total : 26.69%	0-1 @ 9.64% 1-2 @ 7.79% 0-2 @ 5.92% 1-3 @ 3.19% 0-3 @ 2.42% 2-3 @ 2.1% 1-4 @ 0.98% Other @ 2.51% Total : 34.55%