SM
| Current Group D Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Nigeria | 3 | 5 | 9 |
| 2 | Egypt | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 3 | Sudan | 3 | -3 | 1 |
| 4 | Guinea-Bissau | 3 | -3 | 1 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sudan win with a probability of 42.11%. A win for Niger had a probability of 29.44% and a draw had a probability of 28.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sudan win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.27%) and 2-1 (8.24%). The likeliest Niger win was 0-1 (10.52%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.17%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Sudan in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Sudan.
| Result | ||
| Sudan | Draw | Niger |
42.11% ( 0.13) | 28.45% ( -0.01) | 29.44% ( -0.13) |
| Both teams to score 45.03% ( -0.05) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 39.01% ( -0.04) | 60.99% ( 0.03) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 19.01% ( -0.03) | 80.99% ( 0.02) |
| Sudan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.38% ( 0.05) | 28.61% ( -0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.58% ( 0.07) | 64.41% ( -0.08) |
| Niger Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.08% ( -0.12) | 36.91% ( 0.12) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 26.29% ( -0.12) | 73.7% ( 0.11) |
| Score Analysis |
| Sudan | Draw | Niger |
| 1-0 @ 13.21% ( 0.03) 2-0 @ 8.27% ( 0.04)2-1 @ 8.24% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 3.45% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 3.44% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 1.71% 4-0 @ 1.08% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 1.08% ( 0)Other @ 1.63% Total : 42.1% | 1-1 @ 13.17% 0-0 @ 10.56% ( 0.01)2-2 @ 4.11% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.62% Total : 28.45% | 0-1 @ 10.52% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 6.56% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 5.25% ( -0.03)1-3 @ 2.18% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 1.74% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 1.36% ( -0.01)Other @ 1.82% Total : 29.43% |
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