Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cameroon win with a probability of 63.86%. A draw had a probability of 23.6% and a win for Ethiopia had a probability of 12.52%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cameroon win was 1-0 with a probability of 17.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (14.71%) and 2-1 (8.49%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (10.66%), while for a Ethiopia win it was 0-1 (6.15%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Cameroon would win this match.
