Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Zimbabwe win with a probability of 49.69%. A draw had a probability of 25.8% and a win for Ethiopia had a probability of 24.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Zimbabwe win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.44%) and 2-1 (9.29%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.22%), while for a Ethiopia win it was 0-1 (8.05%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.2% likelihood.
