Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Equatorial Guinea win with a probability of 40.71%. A win for Tunisia had a probability of 31.53% and a draw had a probability of 27.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Equatorial Guinea win was 1-0 with a probability of 12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.33%) and 2-0 (7.66%). The likeliest Tunisia win was 0-1 (10.23%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.05%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Equatorial Guinea in this match.
