Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Instituto win with a probability of 45.18%. A draw had a probability of 29.1% and a win for Sarmiento had a probability of 25.73%.

The most likely scoreline for a Instituto win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.41%) and 2-1 (8.15%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.04%), while for a Sarmiento win it was 0-1 (10.44%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 12.1% likelihood.