Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Latvia win with a probability of 38.22%. A win for Estonia had a probability of 33.03% and a draw had a probability of 28.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Latvia win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.82%) and 0-2 (7.31%). The likeliest Estonia win was 1-0 (11.35%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.32%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood.
