Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletico Paranaense win with a probability of 48.18%. A draw had a probability of 27.1% and a win for Sport Recife had a probability of 24.72%.
The most likely scoreline for an Athletico Paranaense win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.62%) and 2-1 (8.89%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.63%), while for a Sport Recife win it was 0-1 (8.98%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Athletico Paranaense would win this match.