Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletico Paranaense win with a probability of 63.99%. A draw had a probability of 21% and a win for Vitoria had a probability of 15.05%.
The most likely scoreline for an Athletico Paranaense win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.81%) and 2-1 (9.79%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.97%), while for a Vitoria win it was 0-1 (5.07%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood.
0.05) 
-0.02) 
