Fluminense are not a great road side, losing four straight matches by a single goal, but they did win this exact fixture last year against them, and they have usually been able to answer a defeat by picking up at least a point in their next fixture.
Bahia have conceded the second-most goals in the league (49), so we expect Flu to have at least a few scoring opportunities, although they should be able to earn a result given the precision of Gilberto in attack, who is capable of making his chances count.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bahia win with a probability of 46.56%. A win for Fluminense had a probability of 27.31% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bahia win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.13%) and 2-0 (8.59%). The likeliest Fluminense win was 0-1 (8.44%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.4%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bahia would win this match.
