Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fluminense win with a probability of 40.66%. A win for Bahia had a probability of 31.51% and a draw had a probability of 27.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fluminense win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.31%) and 2-0 (7.67%). The likeliest Bahia win was 0-1 (10.29%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.07%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Fluminense in this match.