Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sao Paulo win with a probability of 39.54%. A win for Bragantino had a probability of 34.64% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sao Paulo win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.57%) and 0-2 (6.63%). The likeliest Bragantino win was 1-0 (8.76%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.25%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood.
