Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ceara win with a probability of 50.85%. A draw had a probability of 26.3% and a win for Chapecoense had a probability of 22.81%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ceara win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.17%) and 2-1 (9.12%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.31%), while for a Chapecoense win it was 0-1 (8.32%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Ceara in this match.
