Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Palmeiras win with a probability of 44.5%. A win for Chapecoense had a probability of 27.92% and a draw had a probability of 27.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Palmeiras win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.65%) and 1-2 (8.65%). The likeliest Chapecoense win was 1-0 (9.64%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.91%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Palmeiras would win this match.
