Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Coritiba win with a probability of 36.75%. A win for Sao Paulo had a probability of 34.79% and a draw had a probability of 28.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Coritiba win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.72%) and 2-0 (6.87%). The likeliest Sao Paulo win was 0-1 (11.41%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.27%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.3% likelihood.