Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fortaleza win with a probability of 42.77%. A win for Bahia had a probability of 29.83% and a draw had a probability of 27.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fortaleza win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.59%) and 2-0 (8.08%). The likeliest Bahia win was 0-1 (9.71%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.91%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood.