Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fortaleza win with a probability of 48.56%. A draw had a probability of 27.2% and a win for Vasco da Gama had a probability of 24.22%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fortaleza win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.8%) and 2-1 (8.85%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.63%), while for a Vasco da Gama win it was 0-1 (9.01%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Fortaleza would win this match.
