Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gremio win with a probability of 60.72%. A draw had a probability of 22.4% and a win for Bahia had a probability of 16.91%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gremio win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.48%) and 2-1 (9.77%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.62%), while for a Bahia win it was 0-1 (5.78%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Gremio would win this match.
