Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gremio win with a probability of 41.88%. A win for Sao Paulo had a probability of 31.78% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gremio win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.75%) and 2-0 (7.41%). The likeliest Sao Paulo win was 0-1 (8.97%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.53%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood.
