Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sao Paulo win with a probability of 40.73%. A win for Sport Recife had a probability of 31.23% and a draw had a probability of 28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sao Paulo win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.25%) and 0-2 (7.76%). The likeliest Sport Recife win was 1-0 (10.44%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.13%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 12.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Sao Paulo in this match.