Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fluminense win with a probability of 56.04%. A draw had a probability of 26% and a win for Sport Recife had a probability of 17.98%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fluminense win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.15%) and 2-1 (8.87%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.71%), while for a Sport Recife win it was 0-1 (7.74%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 16% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Fluminense in this match.