Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cruzeiro win with a probability of 43.87%. A win for Vitoria had a probability of 28.27% and a draw had a probability of 27.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cruzeiro win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.57%) and 1-2 (8.53%). The likeliest Vitoria win was 1-0 (9.9%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.99%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood.
0.06) 
-0.02) 
