Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cruzeiro win with a probability of 39.29%. A win for Atletico Mineiro had a probability of 33.56% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cruzeiro win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.33%) and 2-0 (7.09%). The likeliest Atletico Mineiro win was 0-1 (9.95%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.87%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood.
-0.17) 
0.04) 
