Champions League | First Qualifying Round | 1st Leg
Jul 11, 2023 at 4pm UK
Urartu Stadium
Form, Standings, Stats
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We said: Urartu 0-1 Zrinjski Mostar
Zrinjski Mostar have more experience in the competition, pushing Sheriff Tiraspol all the way last season, while they were also much more dominant than their opponents in their domestic league.
As such, we expect the Bosnian side to emerge as narrow victors, taking a slender advantage into the second leg in a week's time.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Zrinjski Mostar win with a probability of 48.3%. A draw had a probability of 27.6% and a win for Urartu had a probability of 24.08%.
The most likely scoreline for a Zrinjski Mostar win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.9%) and 1-2 (8.71%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.7%), while for a Urartu win it was 1-0 (9.26%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 14.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Zrinjski Mostar in this match.
| Result |
| Urartu | Draw | Zrinjski Mostar |
24.08% ( -0.02) | 27.61% ( 0) | 48.3% ( 0.01) |
| Both teams to score 43.67% ( -0.03) |
| 39.1% ( -0.03) | 60.89% ( 0.03) |
| 19.08% ( -0.02) | 80.91% ( 0.02) |
| 58.52% ( -0.03) | 41.47% ( 0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 22.02% ( -0.03) | 77.97% ( 0.03) |
| 74.62% ( -0.01) | 25.37% ( 0.01) |
