Champions League | First Qualifying Round | 2nd Leg
Jul 18, 2023 at 7pm UK
Stadion Bijeli Brijeg
Zrinjski Mostar win 4-3 on penalties
Form, Standings, Stats
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We say: Zrinjski Mostar 1-0 Urartu
There was very little to split these two sides in Armenia last week prior to Senic's dramatic late winner, which has put the tie firmly in his side's own hands.
The visitors will have to show more offensive bravery than they managed in the first leg, but we can envisage the hosts doubling their lead in the tie at some stage, before successfully holding onto it.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Zrinjski Mostar win with a probability of 58.4%. A draw had a probability of 23.7% and a win for Urartu had a probability of 17.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Zrinjski Mostar win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.55%) and 2-1 (9.57%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.17%), while for a Urartu win it was 0-1 (6.52%).
| Result |
| Zrinjski Mostar | Draw | Urartu |
58.4% ( 0.02) | 23.69% ( -0.01) | 17.9% ( -0.01) |
| Both teams to score 46.17% ( 0) |
| 46.69% ( 0.02) | 53.31% ( -0.01) |
| 25.14% ( 0.02) | 74.85% ( -0.01) |
| 81.98% ( 0.02) | 18.02% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 51.1% ( 0.03) | 48.9% ( -0.02) |
| 56.32% ( -0.01) | 43.67% ( 0.01) |
