Jagiellonia Bialystok have a lot of quality and are certainly capable of turning the tie around, but we are finding it really difficult to back against Bodo/Glimt. It should be a very tight second leg, but the hosts have enough experience to navigate their way into the playoff round of the competition.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bodo/Glimt win with a probability of 71.16%. A draw had a probability of 16.4% and a win for Jagiellonia Bialystok had a probability of 12.45%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bodo/Glimt win was 2-0 with a probability of 9.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.35%) and 3-0 (8.07%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.35%), while for a Jagiellonia Bialystok win it was 1-2 (3.61%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bodo/Glimt would win this match.
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