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Champions League | Group Stage
Sep 28, 2021 at 8pm UK
Signal Iduna Park
SL

Dortmund
1 - 0
Sporting Lisbon

Malen (37')
Bellingham (42'), Hummels (59')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Nunes (42'), Neto (90')

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 42.5%. A win for Sporting Lisbon had a probability of 36.7% and a draw had a probability of 20.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 2-1 with a probability of 7.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (5.25%) and 3-2 (4.99%). The likeliest Sporting Lisbon win was 1-2 (7.13%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (7.51%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Borussia Dortmund would win this match.

Result
Borussia DortmundDrawSporting Lisbon
42.5%20.8%36.7%
Both teams to score 74.08%
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
75.42%24.57%
Over 3.5Under 3.5
55.64%44.36%
Borussia Dortmund Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
87.11%12.89%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
60.71%39.29%
Sporting Lisbon Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
85.03%14.96%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
56.61%43.39%
Score Analysis
    Borussia Dortmund 42.5%
    Sporting Lisbon 36.7%
    Draw 20.8%
Borussia DortmundDrawSporting Lisbon
2-1 @ 7.69%
3-1 @ 5.25%
3-2 @ 4.99%
2-0 @ 4.05%
1-0 @ 3.95%
3-0 @ 2.77%
4-1 @ 2.69%
4-2 @ 2.56%
4-3 @ 1.62%
4-0 @ 1.42%
5-1 @ 1.1%
5-2 @ 1.05%
Other @ 3.38%
Total : 42.5%
1-1 @ 7.51%
2-2 @ 7.3%
3-3 @ 3.16%
0-0 @ 1.93%
Other @ 0.9%
Total : 20.8%
1-2 @ 7.13%
2-3 @ 4.62%
1-3 @ 4.51%
0-1 @ 3.66%
0-2 @ 3.48%
0-3 @ 2.2%
2-4 @ 2.2%
1-4 @ 2.14%
3-4 @ 1.5%
0-4 @ 1.05%
Other @ 4.21%
Total : 36.7%

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