The hosts come into the match as huge favourites and have arguably got the best draw of the round against the tournament debutants. We fancy Braga to secure a commanding lead in this first-leg encounter, though we also expect the visitors to get on the scoresheet.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Braga win with a probability of 70.17%. A draw had a probability of 18% and a win for Backa Topola had a probability of 11.81%.
The most likely scoreline for a Braga win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.73%) and 2-1 (9.59%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.55%), while for a Backa Topola win it was 0-1 (3.81%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with an 9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Braga would win this match.
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