Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 49.8%. A win for FC Midtjylland had a probability of 27.69% and a draw had a probability of 22.5%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.45%) and 0-2 (6.99%). The likeliest FC Midtjylland win was 2-1 (6.79%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.06%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Ajax in this match.