FC Pyunik come in with very little to lose given the large deficit already, but we have seen Red Star Belgrade simply being too strong and punishing their opponents, who will likely overcommit going forward.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Red Star Belgrade win with a probability of 41.78%. A win for FC Pyunik had a probability of 32.15% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Red Star Belgrade win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.78%) and 0-2 (7.26%). The likeliest FC Pyunik win was 1-0 (8.75%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.39%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Red Star Belgrade would win this match.
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