Sutjeska are certainly capable of making this an uncomfortable 90 minutes for Ludogorets, but we are finding it difficult to back anything other than a home victory in the first leg, and the Bulgarian outfit should ultimately have too much quality over the two matches.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ludogorets Razgrad win with a probability of 38.44%. A win for Sutjeska Niksic had a probability of 35.27% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ludogorets Razgrad win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.38%) and 2-0 (6.58%). The likeliest Sutjeska Niksic win was 0-1 (9.32%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.5%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ludogorets Razgrad would win this match.
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