Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 64.97%. A win for Lyon had a probability of 17.97% and a draw had a probability of 17.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (7.62%) and 2-0 (6.09%). The likeliest Lyon win was 1-2 (4.4%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (6.31%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2% likelihood.
