Maribor may have marched to a confidence-boosting success at the weekend, but Karanovic has no natural replacement for injured captain Milec, and his side were exposed defensively on Saturday.
In contrast, Sheriff Tiraspol have far fewer injury concerns to work around and will hope to take advantage of Maribor's fatigue on home territory, so we can only back the Moldovan champions to advance and condemn Maribor to the Europa League.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Maribor win with a probability of 37.91%. A win for Sheriff Tiraspol had a probability of 34.88% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Maribor win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.16%) and 0-2 (6.79%). The likeliest Sheriff Tiraspol win was 1-0 (10.19%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.9%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Sheriff Tiraspol would win this match.
-0.1) 
1.36) 
